Thirteenth Lap Time Survey: Caution Today, Growth Tomorrow

AmCham member companies are moderately satisfied with the business climate in Serbia, rating it at 2.6 on a scale from 1 to 5. This represents a decrease compared to last year, when the rating reached 3 — the highest since the survey began. Similarly, micro and small enterprises outside of AmCham membership gave the business climate a comparable score of 2.7. Business performance in 2025 for both AmCham members and micro and small enterprises remained at 2022 levels, consistent with the National Bank of Serbia’s October forecast of 2.1% GDP growth for 2025.

“In comparison to last year, which was the most optimistic since we have been conducting this survey, in this, the 13th edition, we see greater caution among members, but also micro and small enterprises, comparable to that from 2022. Experience teaches us that from that level we can reach record results like those we had last year but given the sensitivity and exposure of our economy to global influences, we need to pay even more attention to what we can do locally. Our survey shows that priorities remain institutional reforms in the domains of judicial efficiency, rule of law, ensuring a functional market economy, and improving regulatory predictability through alignment with EU rules. I would put special focus on the necessity of stimulating smart growth and continuing the Government’s engagement in that direction. When we see that as many as 71% of members believe that the biggest challenge in the coming period will be employee education regarding automation and the use of artificial intelligence, while both the EU and the U.S. are rapidly developing their innovation support programs, we believe we must not lose pace, especially when we have an advanced IT sector whose exports we have been proud of for years. This means that the development of infrastructural and regulatory policies to attract smart investments, the development of own capacities with incentives for learning new skills and linking science and industry, as well as the creation of integrated innovation ecosystems of established companies and the startup community, are needed,” said Stefan Lazarević, AmCham President.

Expectations for 2026: Growth and Investment with Selective Optimism

When it comes to expectations for 2026 business performance, 52% of AmCham members expect business growth, and 35% plan new hiring. Among micro and small enterprises, 29% expect business expansion in 2026, and 22% plan new hiring. New investments in the coming year are planned by 59% of AmCham members, while on the micro and small enterprise sample there is significantly more caution — only 27% expect to invest additionally in their operations next year.

Global and Local Unpredictability Identified as the Main Challenge

The survey — completed before the sanctions on NIS came into effect and before uncertainties over gas arrangements — identified key challenges as the unpredictability of global trade policies, alongside equally important weak economic activity of Serbia’s main trading partner — the European Union — and domestic socio‑political instability and insufficient public administration efficiency. About one‑third of respondents in both samples cited the inflation rate as a challenge, noting that the survey began when inflation was at 4.7% and concluded before the October measurement of 2.8%. Companies also responded to administrative measures introduced during the survey period, emphasizing that clear priority should be given to market mechanisms, stronger market institutions, and the shortest possible duration of administrative constraints.

Reforms for Long‑Term Growth

Regarding reforms needed for long‑term economic growth, AmCham members have for more than seven years consistently identified reducing corruption, establishing the rule of law, and an efficient judiciary as the top priorities the Government of Serbia should undertake to systemically improve the business environment. Reducing the shadow economy has again gained importance, indicating a growing need to adapt administrative capacities to internet sales channels. The micro and small enterprise sample largely follows the prioritization of AmCham members, with the added emphasis on the need for greater flexibility in labor legislation — which, along with a high tax wedge on the lowest wages, burdens the daily operations of small firms. According to AmCham members, modernized labor legislation should focus on encompassing digitalization in labor‑legal communication, regulating remote and platform work in line with EU directives, and simplifying wage structures.

About the Survey

AmCham conducted the “Thirteenth Lap Time” survey with the assistance of Ipsos Strategic Marketing between July and October 2024. AmCham member companies were surveyed via an online questionnaire. In addition, qualitative interviews were conducted face‑to‑face or via video meetings. Given that AmCham members predominantly represent large and medium‑sized companies, in line with previous years, a sample of companies outside AmCham membership — comprised of micro and small enterprises — was also included in the survey. The aim of including and comparing the views of large investors and small companies was to gain a more complete picture of the overall economy and the necessary steps for its faster growth.

The complete survey is available for download on the AmCham Serbia website.

Photos from survey presentation are available here.